天文台氣溫預報準確率 - 香港自動氣象站氣候觀測資料庫

香港天文台氣溫預報準確率

本頁對比香港天文台氣溫預測與最終在天文台錄得的氣溫數字的誤差，從而計算準率
天文台官方預測記錄由 1998年05月01日起
只以每日11:30更新的天氣預測作對比
由於報文有機會因錯字或其他原因而重發，每日11:30至12:59中最後的更新會被視為11:30天氣預測的最終稿
計算準確率的標準如下：
- 先將天文台當日實際錄得的高低溫以四捨五入的方式得出整數，再與之前數天天文台對此日所預測的高低溫比較，得出相應準確率
  
  誤差準確率
  
  0℃ 100%
  
  1℃ 80%
  
  2℃ 60%
  
  3℃ 40%
  
  4℃ 20%
  
  ≧5℃ 0%

誤差	準確率
0℃	100%
1℃	80%
2℃	60%
3℃	40%
4℃	20%
≧5℃	0%

根據天文台最新公布的月份數據 (2026年6月) 製作的主要預測準確率圖表

年份,一日前預測,兩日前預測,三日前預測,四日前預測,五日前預測,六日前預測,七日前預測,八日前預測,九日前預測
1998,81.07,79.00,76.17,73.60,,,,,
1999,80.77,76.21,74.09,71.24,,,,,
2000,82.26,79.04,75.92,73.17,71.06,,,,
2001,82.11,77.95,76.01,73.55,71.27,,,,
2002,82.91,79.50,77.62,75.98,74.46,,,,
2003,84.13,80.88,79.37,77.99,77.16,,,,
2004,82.16,79.59,77.81,75.89,73.37,70.06,68.25,,
2005,81.53,77.52,75.49,73.54,72.26,71.39,69.25,,
2006,82.08,79.29,77.84,76.52,75.29,73.59,71.48,,
2007,81.15,78.85,76.82,74.96,73.73,72.85,71.81,,
2008,80.74,77.30,74.67,72.60,71.26,70.19,68.06,,
2009,82.01,80.00,78.08,76.70,75.55,74.12,72.25,,
2010,80.08,77.39,76.26,75.28,74.64,71.59,68.57,,
2011,82.17,79.81,78.41,77.06,75.82,73.68,72.56,,
2012,82.24,79.07,76.83,75.16,74.78,73.47,72.05,,
2013,83.10,80.82,78.96,77.48,75.89,73.78,71.04,,
2014,81.81,79.51,78.93,77.95,77.34,76.30,74.71,75.13,73.20
2015,84.16,82.08,80.19,79.40,77.34,75.51,74.66,73.70,72.33
2016,80.52,78.28,77.13,75.90,74.73,73.17,71.83,69.84,68.44
2017,82.80,79.53,77.58,76.40,74.89,73.85,72.67,70.96,69.04
2018,82.85,81.45,80.27,78.71,77.26,76.06,74.06,71.92,69.43
2019,82.93,80.96,79.07,77.92,77.26,75.81,75.07,73.59,72.30
2020,82.51,81.04,78.88,77.90,77.30,76.04,75.36,74.26,72.40
2021,83.56,81.18,79.15,77.81,75.95,74.27,72.80,72.00,70.41
2022,82.65,80.77,80.06,78.28,76.31,74.66,72.91,71.20,69.00
2023,83.43,81.21,78.76,77.31,75.74,73.90,72.03,70.00,67.42
2024,82.76,80.63,78.83,77.38,76.04,74.75,72.81,70.38,68.33
2025,83.62,82.11,81.40,80.30,78.69,77.43,76.08,74.11,72.90
2026,83.28,82.89,82.22,81.39,80.22,77.94,75.39,72.28,69.50

預測期,1999,2025,2026
一日前預測,80.33,85.33,85.67
兩日前預測,78.67,83.67,84.33
三日前預測,74.00,84.00,85.67
四日前預測,73.00,84.33,85.33
五日前預測,,83.00,83.67
六日前預測,,83.00,82.33
七日前預測,,81.33,78.67
八日前預測,,80.33,76.67
九日前預測,,78.00,74.33

根據天文台最新公布的月份數據 (2026年6月) 製作的其他研究圖表

年份,最低氣溫 (一日前預測),最低氣溫 (兩日前預測),最低氣溫 (三日前預測),最低氣溫 (四日前預測),最低氣溫 (五日前預測),最低氣溫 (六日前預測),最低氣溫 (七日前預測),最低氣溫 (八日前預測),最低氣溫 (九日前預測),最高氣溫 (一日前預測),最高氣溫 (兩日前預測),最高氣溫 (三日前預測),最高氣溫 (四日前預測),最高氣溫 (五日前預測),最高氣溫 (六日前預測),最高氣溫 (七日前預測),最高氣溫 (八日前預測),最高氣溫 (九日前預測)
1998,82.89,79.92,77.42,76.15,,,,,,79.26,78.09,74.92,71.05,,,,,
1999,83.68,79.51,77.14,74.01,,,,,,77.86,72.91,71.04,68.46,,,,,
2000,85.01,80.99,77.69,74.93,72.96,,,,,79.50,77.08,74.16,71.41,69.16,,,,
2001,85.21,80.78,79.45,77.62,75.18,,,,,79.00,75.13,72.58,69.47,67.37,,,,
2002,83.93,80.61,78.89,77.06,74.85,,,,,81.88,78.39,76.34,74.90,74.07,,,,
2003,86.50,82.81,81.38,79.89,78.90,,,,,81.76,78.95,77.36,76.09,75.43,,,,
2004,84.33,82.36,79.67,77.26,75.07,73.30,70.89,,,80.00,76.82,75.95,74.52,71.67,66.81,65.61,,
2005,84.29,79.89,77.44,75.38,74.76,74.32,71.76,,,78.77,75.15,73.54,71.70,69.75,68.47,66.74,,
2006,84.99,81.70,79.78,78.96,77.70,76.33,74.63,,,79.18,76.88,75.89,74.08,72.88,70.85,68.33,,
2007,85.97,83.56,82.08,79.95,79.18,77.92,76.60,,,76.33,74.14,71.56,69.97,68.27,67.78,67.01,,
2008,85.85,81.80,78.91,77.00,75.36,74.26,71.80,,,75.63,72.79,70.44,68.20,67.16,66.12,64.32,,
2009,86.98,84.89,83.13,81.87,80.88,79.29,77.14,,,77.03,75.11,73.02,71.54,70.22,68.96,67.36,,
2010,83.19,80.11,78.85,78.19,77.25,74.62,70.99,,,76.98,74.67,73.68,72.36,72.03,68.57,66.15,,
2011,86.81,84.51,83.13,81.48,80.39,78.74,77.31,,,77.53,75.11,73.68,72.64,71.26,68.63,67.80,,
2012,85.74,81.97,79.51,78.74,77.81,76.28,74.81,,,78.74,76.18,74.15,71.59,71.75,70.66,69.29,,
2013,86.25,83.95,82.47,80.93,78.96,77.26,74.52,,,79.95,77.70,75.45,74.03,72.82,70.30,67.56,,
2014,84.93,82.14,81.92,80.93,80.49,79.73,78.19,77.60,76.39,78.69,76.88,75.95,74.96,74.19,72.88,71.23,72.66,70.00
2015,86.41,84.33,82.85,81.97,80.55,78.58,77.53,76.22,74.69,81.92,79.84,77.53,76.82,74.14,72.44,71.78,71.18,69.97
2016,83.72,81.75,80.98,79.40,78.31,76.72,75.57,74.26,72.57,77.32,74.81,73.28,72.40,71.15,69.62,68.09,65.41,64.32
2017,85.22,82.31,80.71,79.51,78.02,77.31,75.77,74.23,72.25,80.39,76.76,74.45,73.30,71.76,70.39,69.56,67.69,65.82
2018,86.58,85.10,84.00,82.80,81.59,80.49,78.52,76.44,74.36,79.12,77.81,76.55,74.63,72.93,71.62,69.59,67.40,64.49
2019,84.60,83.18,81.37,80.49,79.95,78.96,78.03,76.99,75.62,81.26,78.74,76.77,75.34,74.58,72.66,72.11,70.19,68.99
2020,87.43,86.50,84.37,83.06,82.51,81.42,80.22,79.24,76.67,77.60,75.57,73.39,72.73,72.08,70.66,70.49,69.29,68.14
2021,87.29,85.15,83.07,82.08,80.55,79.07,77.97,76.55,75.01,79.84,77.21,75.23,73.53,71.34,69.48,67.62,67.45,65.81
2022,85.93,83.98,83.40,81.92,79.89,78.54,77.14,75.64,72.81,79.37,77.56,76.71,74.63,72.73,70.79,68.68,66.76,65.18
2023,87.25,85.77,83.68,82.97,81.76,79.84,77.80,75.71,73.19,79.62,76.65,73.85,71.65,69.73,67.97,66.26,64.29,61.65
2024,85.46,83.44,81.86,80.44,79.07,77.43,75.74,73.77,71.97,80.06,77.81,75.79,74.32,73.01,72.08,69.89,67.00,64.70
2025,86.36,85.26,84.77,83.78,81.97,81.37,80.22,78.08,77.15,80.88,78.96,78.03,76.82,75.40,73.48,71.95,70.14,68.66
2026,86.67,86.22,85.00,84.56,83.44,80.56,77.67,73.67,71.56,79.89,79.56,79.44,78.22,77.00,75.33,73.11,70.89,67.44

月份,一日前預測,兩日前預測,三日前預測,四日前預測,五日前預測,六日前預測,七日前預測,八日前預測,九日前預測
1,82.79,80.30,78.25,76.22,74.60,73.23,71.22,71.96,70.03
2,80.88,78.17,75.96,75.08,73.20,71.01,68.28,69.50,66.33
3,78.76,76.01,73.55,71.85,70.41,68.38,65.72,64.06,61.75
4,78.65,74.61,72.91,71.14,69.86,68.99,67.54,69.22,67.09
5,80.30,77.41,75.92,74.49,73.74,70.74,69.45,68.98,67.01
6,82.64,80.34,79.23,77.78,77.15,76.84,75.90,75.68,74.27
7,84.12,81.98,80.38,78.82,78.07,77.00,76.40,76.96,75.67
8,82.98,81.35,79.97,78.54,77.58,77.17,75.97,75.36,74.56
9,84.02,80.93,78.75,76.99,76.15,76.13,75.57,75.06,73.86
10,85.08,83.25,81.91,80.82,79.70,77.86,77.02,74.76,73.31
11,83.92,81.56,79.65,78.13,77.42,76.79,73.78,72.45,70.59
12,83.60,80.73,79.00,76.83,75.98,74.40,71.65,72.05,69.07

年份,最低氣溫 (一日前預測),最低氣溫 (兩日前預測),最低氣溫 (三日前預測),最低氣溫 (四日前預測),最低氣溫 (五日前預測),最低氣溫 (六日前預測),最低氣溫 (七日前預測),最低氣溫 (八日前預測),最低氣溫 (九日前預測),最高氣溫 (一日前預測),最高氣溫 (兩日前預測),最高氣溫 (三日前預測),最高氣溫 (四日前預測),最高氣溫 (五日前預測),最高氣溫 (六日前預測),最高氣溫 (七日前預測),最高氣溫 (八日前預測),最高氣溫 (九日前預測)
1,85.34,82.34,80.30,78.15,76.10,74.92,72.60,73.50,71.08,80.23,78.27,76.19,74.30,73.11,71.55,69.83,70.43,68.98
2,86.40,83.78,81.40,80.56,78.52,76.88,73.65,75.33,72.25,75.36,72.56,70.52,69.61,67.88,65.13,62.91,63.67,60.41
3,85.58,82.80,80.76,79.38,77.62,76.46,73.67,71.99,69.68,71.94,69.21,66.34,64.33,63.19,60.31,57.78,56.13,53.82
4,84.48,80.17,78.50,77.19,76.17,75.48,73.74,75.03,72.34,72.83,69.06,67.32,65.10,63.56,62.49,61.33,63.40,61.84
5,84.21,81.50,80.05,78.92,78.72,76.15,74.71,73.79,72.08,76.39,73.33,71.78,70.06,68.75,65.33,64.19,64.18,61.93
6,84.21,81.83,80.35,79.03,78.63,78.78,78.02,78.05,76.76,81.07,78.84,78.10,76.53,75.67,74.91,73.77,73.32,71.77
7,85.82,83.83,82.59,81.25,80.75,80.41,80.15,81.56,80.81,82.43,80.12,78.18,76.40,75.40,73.60,72.66,72.37,70.54
8,84.80,83.14,81.98,80.53,80.05,80.44,79.03,78.65,78.28,81.15,79.56,77.95,76.54,75.11,73.90,72.90,72.08,70.84
9,86.67,84.17,82.74,81.65,80.90,81.28,80.33,80.28,79.72,81.38,77.69,74.76,72.32,71.40,70.99,70.80,69.83,68.00
10,87.32,85.43,84.23,82.98,81.81,80.21,79.47,77.10,75.54,82.84,81.06,79.58,78.66,77.59,75.51,74.58,72.42,71.08
11,85.61,83.11,80.67,78.88,78.20,77.84,74.95,73.76,71.20,82.23,80.00,78.64,77.39,76.65,75.75,72.61,71.14,69.97
12,85.71,82.50,80.44,78.08,76.93,75.57,72.70,73.77,70.46,81.48,78.95,77.55,75.58,75.02,73.22,70.59,70.33,67.68

最近一年實測高低溫與一日前預測相差三度或以上的日子列表

總日數：14日

日期	實測最高氣溫 (四捨五入後)	一日前預測最高氣溫	誤差	實測最低氣溫 (四捨五入後)	一日前預測最低氣溫	誤差
2025-07-25	33.6 (34)	34	0 度	25.4 (25)	28	低 3 度
2025-08-24	31.7 (32)	30	高 2 度	28.5 (29)	26	高 3 度
2025-08-29	33.0 (33)	31	高 2 度	28.9 (29)	26	高 3 度
2025-09-17	33.6 (34)	33	高 1 度	25.3 (25)	28	低 3 度
2025-09-21	27.5 (28)	31	低 3 度	25.7 (26)	26	0 度
2026-01-21	18.1 (18)	17	高 1 度	14.9 (15)	12	高 3 度
2026-01-26	22.6 (23)	20	高 3 度	17.8 (18)	17	高 1 度
2026-01-27	24.8 (25)	22	高 3 度	18.9 (19)	18	高 1 度
2026-03-01	21.1 (21)	24	低 3 度	18.7 (19)	20	低 1 度
2026-03-14	24.3 (24)	21	高 3 度	16.0 (16)	16	0 度
2026-05-04	27.6 (28)	25	高 3 度	21.9 (22)	21	高 1 度
2026-05-19	26.4 (26)	29	低 3 度	25.0 (25)	25	0 度
2026-05-20	30.7 (31)	28	高 3 度	25.9 (26)	25	高 1 度
2026-05-21	31.5 (32)	28	高 4 度	25.3 (25)	25	0 度

月份,日數
1999/05/01,45
1999/06/01,45
1999/07/01,46
1999/08/01,47
1999/09/01,48
1999/10/01,48
1999/11/01,48
1999/12/01,46
2000/01/01,45
2000/02/01,44
2000/03/01,41
2000/04/01,37
2000/05/01,34
2000/06/01,34
2000/07/01,32
2000/08/01,31
2000/09/01,27
2000/10/01,27
2000/11/01,27
2000/12/01,29
2001/01/01,30
2001/02/01,32
2001/03/01,31
2001/04/01,33
2001/05/01,36
2001/06/01,32
2001/07/01,35
2001/08/01,35
2001/09/01,35
2001/10/01,36
2001/11/01,35
2001/12/01,33
2002/01/01,37
2002/02/01,36
2002/03/01,37
2002/04/01,34
2002/05/01,30
2002/06/01,31
2002/07/01,32
2002/08/01,29
2002/09/01,32
2002/10/01,30
2002/11/01,29
2002/12/01,30
2003/01/01,24
2003/02/01,23
2003/03/01,25
2003/04/01,25
2003/05/01,29
2003/06/01,29
2003/07/01,24
2003/08/01,24
2003/09/01,24
2003/10/01,24
2003/11/01,25
2003/12/01,23
2004/01/01,23
2004/02/01,24
2004/03/01,24
2004/04/01,32
2004/05/01,28
2004/06/01,27
2004/07/01,29
2004/08/01,33
2004/09/01,31
2004/10/01,32
2004/11/01,32
2004/12/01,32
2005/01/01,33
2005/02/01,34
2005/03/01,34
2005/04/01,32
2005/05/01,35
2005/06/01,35
2005/07/01,37
2005/08/01,32
2005/09/01,33
2005/10/01,34
2005/11/01,33
2005/12/01,37
2006/01/01,41
2006/02/01,41
2006/03/01,40
2006/04/01,35
2006/05/01,37
2006/06/01,37
2006/07/01,36
2006/08/01,38
2006/09/01,39
2006/10/01,37
2006/11/01,37
2006/12/01,32
2007/01/01,31
2007/02/01,35
2007/03/01,36
2007/04/01,38
2007/05/01,40
2007/06/01,42
2007/07/01,39
2007/08/01,39
2007/09/01,38
2007/10/01,38
2007/11/01,44
2007/12/01,46
2008/01/01,45
2008/02/01,42
2008/03/01,47
2008/04/01,52
2008/05/01,47
2008/06/01,44
2008/07/01,46
2008/08/01,46
2008/09/01,46
2008/10/01,48
2008/11/01,44
2008/12/01,46
2009/01/01,45
2009/02/01,43
2009/03/01,40
2009/04/01,32
2009/05/01,32
2009/06/01,35
2009/07/01,35
2009/08/01,35
2009/09/01,34
2009/10/01,33
2009/11/01,35
2009/12/01,31
2010/01/01,31
2010/02/01,31
2010/03/01,30
2010/04/01,33
2010/05/01,35
2010/06/01,35
2010/07/01,36
2010/08/01,36
2010/09/01,36
2010/10/01,39
2010/11/01,37
2010/12/01,40
2011/01/01,39
2011/02/01,40
2011/03/01,41
2011/04/01,40
2011/05/01,43
2011/06/01,42
2011/07/01,39
2011/08/01,38
2011/09/01,42
2011/10/01,40
2011/11/01,39
2011/12/01,38
2012/01/01,39
2012/02/01,38
2012/03/01,39
2012/04/01,43
2012/05/01,37
2012/06/01,37
2012/07/01,39
2012/08/01,40
2012/09/01,36
2012/10/01,34
2012/11/01,37
2012/12/01,36
2013/01/01,38
2013/02/01,38
2013/03/01,32
2013/04/01,28
2013/05/01,28
2013/06/01,28
2013/07/01,30
2013/08/01,30
2013/09/01,34
2013/10/01,34
2013/11/01,31
2013/12/01,30
2014/01/01,29
2014/02/01,30
2014/03/01,33
2014/04/01,33
2014/05/01,37
2014/06/01,35
2014/07/01,33
2014/08/01,32
2014/09/01,27
2014/10/01,27
2014/11/01,28
2014/12/01,31
2015/01/01,29
2015/02/01,26
2015/03/01,25
2015/04/01,27
2015/05/01,23
2015/06/01,23
2015/07/01,24
2015/08/01,24
2015/09/01,24
2015/10/01,26
2015/11/01,25
2015/12/01,22
2016/01/01,24
2016/02/01,32
2016/03/01,32
2016/04/01,30
2016/05/01,31
2016/06/01,34
2016/07/01,33
2016/08/01,36
2016/09/01,38
2016/10/01,36
2016/11/01,38
2016/12/01,38
2017/01/01,36
2017/02/01,29
2017/03/01,32
2017/04/01,31
2017/05/01,29
2017/06/01,30
2017/07/01,31
2017/08/01,30
2017/09/01,28
2017/10/01,32
2017/11/01,31
2017/12/01,31
2018/01/01,34
2018/02/01,39
2018/03/01,34
2018/04/01,32
2018/05/01,33
2018/06/01,32
2018/07/01,30
2018/08/01,29
2018/09/01,31
2018/10/01,28
2018/11/01,29
2018/12/01,31
2019/01/01,28
2019/02/01,21
2019/03/01,25
2019/04/01,26
2019/05/01,29
2019/06/01,27
2019/07/01,26
2019/08/01,27
2019/09/01,26
2019/10/01,26
2019/11/01,23
2019/12/01,21
2020/01/01,21
2020/02/01,27
2020/03/01,28
2020/04/01,29
2020/05/01,28
2020/06/01,28
2020/07/01,29
2020/08/01,29
2020/09/01,30
2020/10/01,31
2020/11/01,32
2020/12/01,34
2021/01/01,35
2021/02/01,30
2021/03/01,30
2021/04/01,30
2021/05/01,27
2021/06/01,32
2021/07/01,33
2021/08/01,31
2021/09/01,29
2021/10/01,27
2021/11/01,26
2021/12/01,27
2022/01/01,26
2022/02/01,28
2022/03/01,26
2022/04/01,27
2022/05/01,31
2022/06/01,25
2022/07/01,24
2022/08/01,25
2022/09/01,26
2022/10/01,28
2022/11/01,29
2022/12/01,26
2023/01/01,26
2023/02/01,29
2023/03/01,24
2023/04/01,21
2023/05/01,17
2023/06/01,18
2023/07/01,18
2023/08/01,16
2023/09/01,18
2023/10/01,18
2023/11/01,17
2023/12/01,18
2024/01/01,17
2024/02/01,13
2024/03/01,20
2024/04/01,24
2024/05/01,24
2024/06/01,25
2024/07/01,24
2024/08/01,24
2024/09/01,22
2024/10/01,23
2024/11/01,24
2024/12/01,23
2025/01/01,23
2025/02/01,22
2025/03/01,20
2025/04/01,20
2025/05/01,23
2025/06/01,24
2025/07/01,25
2025/08/01,27
2025/09/01,28
2025/10/01,25
2025/11/01,24
2025/12/01,24
2026/01/01,27
2026/02/01,26
2026/03/01,23
2026/04/01,17
2026/05/01,15
2026/06/01,14

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