香港天文台氣溫預報準確率

  • 本頁對比香港天文台氣溫預測與最終在天文台錄得的氣溫數字的誤差，從而計算準率
  • 天文台官方預測記錄由 1998年05月01日 起
  • 只以每日11:30更新的天氣預測作對比
  • 由於報文有機會因錯字或其他原因而重發，每日11:30至12:59中最後的更新會被視為11:30天氣預測的最終稿
  • 計算準確率的標準如下：
    • 先將天文台當日實際錄得的高低溫以四捨五入的方式得出整數，再與之前數天天文台對此日所預測的高低溫比較，得出相應準確率
      誤差準確率
      0℃100%
      1℃80%
      2℃60%
      3℃40%
      4℃20%
      ≧5℃0%

根據天文台最新公布的月份數據 (2025年2月) 製作的主要預測準確率圖表

Created with Highcharts 8.0.4年份香港天文台氣溫預報準確率按下右邊圖例可顯示更多其他時長的預報準確率，資料截至2025年2月81.07%81.07%80.77%80.77%82.26%82.26%82.11%82.11%82.91%82.91%84.13%84.13%82.16%82.16%81.53%81.53%82.08%82.08%81.15%81.15%80.74%80.74%82.01%82.01%80.08%80.08%82.17%82.17%82.24%82.24%83.10%83.10%81.81%81.81%84.16%84.16%80.52%80.52%82.80%82.80%82.85%82.85%82.93%82.93%82.51%82.51%83.56%83.56%82.65%82.65%83.43%83.43%82.76%82.76%85.25%85.25%79.00%79.00%76.21%76.21%79.04%79.04%77.95%77.95%79.50%79.50%80.88%80.88%79.59%79.59%77.52%77.52%79.29%79.29%78.85%78.85%77.30%77.30%80.00%80.00%77.39%77.39%79.81%79.81%79.07%79.07%80.82%80.82%79.51%79.51%82.08%82.08%78.28%78.28%79.53%79.53%81.45%81.45%80.96%80.96%81.04%81.04%81.18%81.18%80.77%80.77%81.21%81.21%80.63%80.63%84.24%84.24%76.17%76.17%74.09%74.09%75.92%75.92%76.01%76.01%77.62%77.62%79.37%79.37%77.81%77.81%75.49%75.49%77.84%77.84%76.82%76.82%74.67%74.67%78.08%78.08%76.26%76.26%78.41%78.41%76.83%76.83%78.96%78.96%78.93%78.93%80.19%80.19%77.13%77.13%77.58%77.58%80.27%80.27%79.07%79.07%78.88%78.88%79.15%79.15%80.06%80.06%78.76%78.76%78.83%78.83%83.39%83.39%73.60%73.60%71.24%71.24%73.17%73.17%73.55%73.55%75.98%75.98%77.99%77.99%75.89%75.89%73.54%73.54%76.52%76.52%74.96%74.96%72.60%72.60%76.70%76.70%75.28%75.28%77.06%77.06%75.16%75.16%77.48%77.48%77.95%77.95%79.40%79.40%75.90%75.90%76.40%76.40%78.71%78.71%77.92%77.92%77.90%77.90%77.81%77.81%78.28%78.28%77.31%77.31%77.38%77.38%83.73%83.73%71.06%71.06%71.27%71.27%74.46%74.46%77.16%77.16%73.37%73.37%72.26%72.26%75.29%75.29%73.73%73.73%71.26%71.26%75.55%75.55%74.64%74.64%75.82%75.82%74.78%74.78%75.89%75.89%77.34%77.34%77.34%77.34%74.73%74.73%74.89%74.89%77.26%77.26%77.26%77.26%77.30%77.30%75.95%75.95%76.31%76.31%75.74%75.74%76.04%76.04%83.05%83.05%70.06%70.06%71.39%71.39%73.59%73.59%72.85%72.85%70.19%70.19%74.12%74.12%71.59%71.59%73.68%73.68%73.47%73.47%73.78%73.78%76.30%76.30%75.51%75.51%73.17%73.17%73.85%73.85%76.06%76.06%75.81%75.81%76.04%76.04%74.27%74.27%74.66%74.66%73.90%73.90%74.75%74.75%82.20%82.20%68.25%68.25%69.25%69.25%71.48%71.48%71.81%71.81%68.06%68.06%72.25%72.25%68.57%68.57%72.56%72.56%72.05%72.05%71.04%71.04%74.71%74.71%74.66%74.66%71.83%71.83%72.67%72.67%74.06%74.06%75.07%75.07%75.36%75.36%72.80%72.80%72.91%72.91%72.03%72.03%72.81%72.81%79.83%79.83%75.13%75.13%73.70%73.70%69.84%69.84%70.96%70.96%71.92%71.92%73.59%73.59%74.26%74.26%72.00%72.00%71.20%71.20%70.00%70.00%70.38%70.38%78.64%78.64%73.20%73.20%72.33%72.33%68.44%68.44%69.04%69.04%69.43%69.43%72.30%72.30%72.40%72.40%70.41%70.41%69.00%69.00%67.42%67.42%68.33%68.33%77.80%77.80%一日前預測兩日前預測三日前預測四日前預測五日前預測六日前預測七日前預測八日前預測九日前預測199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202565%70%75%80%85%90%

Created with Highcharts 8.0.4香港天文台 2月氣溫預報準確率 (1999年、2024年、2025年)84.29%84.29%83.21%83.21%82.14%82.14%83.21%83.21%83.21%83.21%83.21%83.21%80.00%80.00%79.29%79.29%76.43%76.43%82.07%82.07%78.28%78.28%78.62%78.62%76.55%76.55%74.83%74.83%71.72%71.72%65.17%65.17%59.31%59.31%54.14%54.14%78.57%78.57%78.57%78.57%77.50%77.50%78.21%78.21%199920242025一日前預測兩日前預測三日前預測四日前預測五日前預測六日前預測七日前預測八日前預測九日前預測55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%

根據天文台最新公布的月份數據 (2025年2月) 製作的其他研究圖表

Created with Highcharts 8.0.4年份香港天文台最高/最低氣溫預報準確率按下右邊圖例可顯示更多其他時長的預報準確率，資料截至2025年2月最低氣溫 (一日前預測)最低氣溫 (兩日前預測)最低氣溫 (三日前預測)最低氣溫 (四日前預測)最低氣溫 (五日前預測)最低氣溫 (六日前預測)最低氣溫 (七日前預測)最低氣溫 (八日前預測)最低氣溫 (九日前預測)最高氣溫 (一日前預測)最高氣溫 (兩日前預測)最高氣溫 (三日前預測)最高氣溫 (四日前預測)最高氣溫 (五日前預測)最高氣溫 (六日前預測)最高氣溫 (七日前預測)最高氣溫 (八日前預測)最高氣溫 (九日前預測)199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202560%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%

Created with Highcharts 8.0.4月份香港天文台各月氣溫預報準確率資料截至2025年2月一日前預測兩日前預測三日前預測四日前預測五日前預測六日前預測七日前預測八日前預測九日前預測12345678910111260%65%70%75%80%85%90%

Created with Highcharts 8.0.4月份香港天文台各月最高/最低氣溫預報準確率按下右邊圖例可顯示更多其他時長的預報準確率，資料截至2025年2月最低氣溫 (一日前預測)最低氣溫 (兩日前預測)最低氣溫 (三日前預測)最低氣溫 (四日前預測)最低氣溫 (五日前預測)最低氣溫 (六日前預測)最低氣溫 (七日前預測)最低氣溫 (八日前預測)最低氣溫 (九日前預測)最高氣溫 (一日前預測)最高氣溫 (兩日前預測)最高氣溫 (三日前預測)最高氣溫 (四日前預測)最高氣溫 (五日前預測)最高氣溫 (六日前預測)最高氣溫 (七日前預測)最高氣溫 (八日前預測)最高氣溫 (九日前預測)12345678910111255%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%

最近一年實測高低溫與一日前預測相差三度或以上的日子列表

總日數：22日

日期實測最高氣溫
(四捨五入後)		一日前預測
最高氣溫		誤差實測最低氣溫
(四捨五入後)		一日前預測
最低氣溫		誤差
2024-03-0116.2 (16)17低 1 度10.4 (10)13低 3 度
2024-03-0626.5 (27)24高 3 度20.1 (20)19高 1 度
2024-03-0822.4 (22)19高 3 度15.7 (16)16 0 度
2024-03-1224.0 (24)21高 3 度15.6 (16)15高 1 度
2024-03-1924.6 (25)21高 4 度19.5 (20)17高 3 度
2024-03-2329.1 (29)26高 3 度22.1 (22)21高 1 度
2024-03-2431.5 (32)27高 5 度24.5 (25)22高 3 度
2024-04-1829.5 (30)32低 2 度24.1 (24)27低 3 度
2024-04-2029.5 (30)30 0 度23.3 (23)26低 3 度
2024-04-2127.2 (27)29低 2 度21.5 (22)25低 3 度
2024-04-2327.2 (27)26高 1 度24.6 (25)22高 3 度
2024-04-2730.2 (30)29高 1 度27.7 (28)24高 4 度
2024-04-2828.3 (28)30低 2 度23.4 (23)26低 3 度
2024-05-0425.4 (25)28低 3 度22.4 (22)24低 2 度
2024-05-0928.5 (29)26高 3 度25.0 (25)23高 2 度
2024-05-2832.0 (32)29高 3 度26.0 (26)25高 1 度
2024-09-1735.7 (36)33高 3 度26.3 (26)27低 1 度
2024-10-0430.9 (31)29高 2 度24.6 (25)22高 3 度
2024-10-0927.4 (27)30低 3 度25.2 (25)26低 1 度
2024-10-1127.5 (28)30低 2 度23.2 (23)26低 3 度
2024-11-2018.6 (19)22低 3 度17.5 (18)18 0 度
2025-02-2620.7 (21)18高 3 度16.1 (16)15高 1 度

Created with Highcharts 8.0.4日數香港天文台一日前氣溫預報較實際相差三度或以上的一年累積日數數據為標示月份的過去一年累積數字，資料截至2025年2月200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022202410152025303540455055