天文台氣溫預報準確率 - 香港自動氣象站氣候觀測資料庫

香港天文台氣溫預報準確率

本頁對比香港天文台氣溫預測與最終在天文台錄得的氣溫數字的誤差，從而計算準率
天文台官方預測記錄由 1998年05月01日起
只以每日11:30更新的天氣預測作對比
由於報文有機會因錯字或其他原因而重發，每日11:30至12:59中最後的更新會被視為11:30天氣預測的最終稿
計算準確率的標準如下：
- 先將天文台當日實際錄得的高低溫以四捨五入的方式得出整數，再與之前數天天文台對此日所預測的高低溫比較，得出相應準確率
  
  誤差準確率
  
  0℃ 100%
  
  1℃ 80%
  
  2℃ 60%
  
  3℃ 40%
  
  4℃ 20%
  
  ≧5℃ 0%

誤差	準確率
0℃	100%
1℃	80%
2℃	60%
3℃	40%
4℃	20%
≧5℃	0%

根據天文台最新公布的月份數據 (2025年3月) 製作的主要預測準確率圖表

年份,一日前預測,兩日前預測,三日前預測,四日前預測,五日前預測,六日前預測,七日前預測,八日前預測,九日前預測
1998,81.07,79.00,76.17,73.60,,,,,
1999,80.77,76.21,74.09,71.24,,,,,
2000,82.26,79.04,75.92,73.17,71.06,,,,
2001,82.11,77.95,76.01,73.55,71.27,,,,
2002,82.91,79.50,77.62,75.98,74.46,,,,
2003,84.13,80.88,79.37,77.99,77.16,,,,
2004,82.16,79.59,77.81,75.89,73.37,70.06,68.25,,
2005,81.53,77.52,75.49,73.54,72.26,71.39,69.25,,
2006,82.08,79.29,77.84,76.52,75.29,73.59,71.48,,
2007,81.15,78.85,76.82,74.96,73.73,72.85,71.81,,
2008,80.74,77.30,74.67,72.60,71.26,70.19,68.06,,
2009,82.01,80.00,78.08,76.70,75.55,74.12,72.25,,
2010,80.08,77.39,76.26,75.28,74.64,71.59,68.57,,
2011,82.17,79.81,78.41,77.06,75.82,73.68,72.56,,
2012,82.24,79.07,76.83,75.16,74.78,73.47,72.05,,
2013,83.10,80.82,78.96,77.48,75.89,73.78,71.04,,
2014,81.81,79.51,78.93,77.95,77.34,76.30,74.71,75.13,73.20
2015,84.16,82.08,80.19,79.40,77.34,75.51,74.66,73.70,72.33
2016,80.52,78.28,77.13,75.90,74.73,73.17,71.83,69.84,68.44
2017,82.80,79.53,77.58,76.40,74.89,73.85,72.67,70.96,69.04
2018,82.85,81.45,80.27,78.71,77.26,76.06,74.06,71.92,69.43
2019,82.93,80.96,79.07,77.92,77.26,75.81,75.07,73.59,72.30
2020,82.51,81.04,78.88,77.90,77.30,76.04,75.36,74.26,72.40
2021,83.56,81.18,79.15,77.81,75.95,74.27,72.80,72.00,70.41
2022,82.65,80.77,80.06,78.28,76.31,74.66,72.91,71.20,69.00
2023,83.43,81.21,78.76,77.31,75.74,73.90,72.03,70.00,67.42
2024,82.76,80.63,78.83,77.38,76.04,74.75,72.81,70.38,68.33
2025,83.89,82.00,80.78,80.78,79.33,78.11,76.00,73.44,71.89

預測期,1999,2024,2025
一日前預測,76.45,75.48,81.29
兩日前預測,64.19,73.55,77.74
三日前預測,61.29,69.03,75.81
四日前預測,60.32,66.45,75.16
五日前預測,,62.90,72.26
六日前預測,,59.03,70.32
七日前預測,,53.23,68.71
八日前預測,,47.10,63.55
九日前預測,,45.81,60.65

根據天文台最新公布的月份數據 (2025年3月) 製作的其他研究圖表

年份,最低氣溫 (一日前預測),最低氣溫 (兩日前預測),最低氣溫 (三日前預測),最低氣溫 (四日前預測),最低氣溫 (五日前預測),最低氣溫 (六日前預測),最低氣溫 (七日前預測),最低氣溫 (八日前預測),最低氣溫 (九日前預測),最高氣溫 (一日前預測),最高氣溫 (兩日前預測),最高氣溫 (三日前預測),最高氣溫 (四日前預測),最高氣溫 (五日前預測),最高氣溫 (六日前預測),最高氣溫 (七日前預測),最高氣溫 (八日前預測),最高氣溫 (九日前預測)
1998,82.89,79.92,77.42,76.15,,,,,,79.26,78.09,74.92,71.05,,,,,
1999,83.68,79.51,77.14,74.01,,,,,,77.86,72.91,71.04,68.46,,,,,
2000,85.01,80.99,77.69,74.93,72.96,,,,,79.50,77.08,74.16,71.41,69.16,,,,
2001,85.21,80.78,79.45,77.62,75.18,,,,,79.00,75.13,72.58,69.47,67.37,,,,
2002,83.93,80.61,78.89,77.06,74.85,,,,,81.88,78.39,76.34,74.90,74.07,,,,
2003,86.50,82.81,81.38,79.89,78.90,,,,,81.76,78.95,77.36,76.09,75.43,,,,
2004,84.33,82.36,79.67,77.26,75.07,73.30,70.89,,,80.00,76.82,75.95,74.52,71.67,66.81,65.61,,
2005,84.29,79.89,77.44,75.38,74.76,74.32,71.76,,,78.77,75.15,73.54,71.70,69.75,68.47,66.74,,
2006,84.99,81.70,79.78,78.96,77.70,76.33,74.63,,,79.18,76.88,75.89,74.08,72.88,70.85,68.33,,
2007,85.97,83.56,82.08,79.95,79.18,77.92,76.60,,,76.33,74.14,71.56,69.97,68.27,67.78,67.01,,
2008,85.85,81.80,78.91,77.00,75.36,74.26,71.80,,,75.63,72.79,70.44,68.20,67.16,66.12,64.32,,
2009,86.98,84.89,83.13,81.87,80.88,79.29,77.14,,,77.03,75.11,73.02,71.54,70.22,68.96,67.36,,
2010,83.19,80.11,78.85,78.19,77.25,74.62,70.99,,,76.98,74.67,73.68,72.36,72.03,68.57,66.15,,
2011,86.81,84.51,83.13,81.48,80.39,78.74,77.31,,,77.53,75.11,73.68,72.64,71.26,68.63,67.80,,
2012,85.74,81.97,79.51,78.74,77.81,76.28,74.81,,,78.74,76.18,74.15,71.59,71.75,70.66,69.29,,
2013,86.25,83.95,82.47,80.93,78.96,77.26,74.52,,,79.95,77.70,75.45,74.03,72.82,70.30,67.56,,
2014,84.93,82.14,81.92,80.93,80.49,79.73,78.19,77.60,76.39,78.69,76.88,75.95,74.96,74.19,72.88,71.23,72.66,70.00
2015,86.41,84.33,82.85,81.97,80.55,78.58,77.53,76.22,74.69,81.92,79.84,77.53,76.82,74.14,72.44,71.78,71.18,69.97
2016,83.72,81.75,80.98,79.40,78.31,76.72,75.57,74.26,72.57,77.32,74.81,73.28,72.40,71.15,69.62,68.09,65.41,64.32
2017,85.22,82.31,80.71,79.51,78.02,77.31,75.77,74.23,72.25,80.39,76.76,74.45,73.30,71.76,70.39,69.56,67.69,65.82
2018,86.58,85.10,84.00,82.80,81.59,80.49,78.52,76.44,74.36,79.12,77.81,76.55,74.63,72.93,71.62,69.59,67.40,64.49
2019,84.60,83.18,81.37,80.49,79.95,78.96,78.03,76.99,75.62,81.26,78.74,76.77,75.34,74.58,72.66,72.11,70.19,68.99
2020,87.43,86.50,84.37,83.06,82.51,81.42,80.22,79.24,76.67,77.60,75.57,73.39,72.73,72.08,70.66,70.49,69.29,68.14
2021,87.29,85.15,83.07,82.08,80.55,79.07,77.97,76.55,75.01,79.84,77.21,75.23,73.53,71.34,69.48,67.62,67.45,65.81
2022,85.93,83.98,83.40,81.92,79.89,78.54,77.14,75.64,72.81,79.37,77.56,76.71,74.63,72.73,70.79,68.68,66.76,65.18
2023,87.25,85.77,83.68,82.97,81.76,79.84,77.80,75.71,73.19,79.62,76.65,73.85,71.65,69.73,67.97,66.26,64.29,61.65
2024,85.46,83.44,81.86,80.44,79.07,77.43,75.74,73.77,71.97,80.06,77.81,75.79,74.32,73.01,72.08,69.89,67.00,64.70
2025,87.56,86.89,86.22,86.00,84.22,83.78,81.78,78.22,75.33,80.22,77.11,75.33,75.56,74.44,72.44,70.22,68.67,68.44

月份,一日前預測,兩日前預測,三日前預測,四日前預測,五日前預測,六日前預測,七日前預測,八日前預測,九日前預測
1,82.81,80.20,78.08,75.96,74.29,72.93,70.98,71.99,70.18
2,80.83,78.01,75.80,74.95,73.10,70.84,68.05,69.45,66.46
3,78.58,75.81,73.36,71.67,70.22,68.13,65.43,63.52,61.17
4,78.42,74.19,72.32,70.63,69.37,68.56,67.10,68.91,66.67
5,80.38,77.26,75.64,74.06,73.31,70.18,68.98,68.63,66.55
6,82.43,80.06,78.81,77.25,76.65,76.28,75.50,75.17,73.92
7,84.17,81.95,80.41,78.87,78.12,77.15,76.46,77.19,75.98
8,82.93,81.34,79.95,78.54,77.67,77.17,75.90,75.27,74.29
9,84.04,80.88,78.69,76.85,76.04,75.99,75.47,75.06,73.85
10,84.99,83.11,81.67,80.61,79.56,77.80,76.99,74.84,73.40
11,83.90,81.52,79.63,78.09,77.35,76.82,73.84,72.37,70.33
12,83.41,80.50,78.69,76.60,75.68,73.99,71.18,71.55,68.48

年份,最低氣溫 (一日前預測),最低氣溫 (兩日前預測),最低氣溫 (三日前預測),最低氣溫 (四日前預測),最低氣溫 (五日前預測),最低氣溫 (六日前預測),最低氣溫 (七日前預測),最低氣溫 (八日前預測),最低氣溫 (九日前預測),最高氣溫 (一日前預測),最高氣溫 (兩日前預測),最高氣溫 (三日前預測),最高氣溫 (四日前預測),最高氣溫 (五日前預測),最高氣溫 (六日前預測),最高氣溫 (七日前預測),最高氣溫 (八日前預測),最高氣溫 (九日前預測)
1,85.39,82.20,80.12,77.80,75.70,74.56,72.29,73.67,71.26,80.24,78.20,76.05,74.13,72.89,71.29,69.66,70.32,69.09
2,86.42,83.74,81.34,80.53,78.39,76.74,73.47,75.31,72.41,75.24,72.29,70.26,69.37,67.81,64.94,62.62,63.60,60.51
3,85.47,82.69,80.67,79.26,77.51,76.29,73.47,71.97,69.56,71.69,68.93,66.05,64.08,62.94,59.97,57.38,55.07,52.79
4,84.29,79.74,78.13,76.87,76.08,75.49,73.75,75.59,72.84,72.56,68.63,66.52,64.39,62.67,61.62,60.44,62.24,60.50
5,83.94,81.09,79.55,78.39,78.25,75.49,74.22,73.40,71.74,76.83,73.43,71.72,69.74,68.38,64.87,63.75,63.86,61.37
6,83.98,81.57,79.98,78.56,78.09,78.25,77.64,77.75,76.35,80.87,78.56,77.64,75.95,75.22,74.32,73.37,72.58,71.49
7,85.96,83.86,82.56,81.29,80.80,80.55,80.19,81.82,80.88,82.37,80.05,78.25,76.46,75.45,73.75,72.74,72.55,71.09
8,84.81,83.23,82.06,80.60,80.21,80.52,79.02,78.59,78.06,81.05,79.45,77.85,76.49,75.12,73.83,72.78,71.94,70.53
9,86.77,84.17,82.72,81.56,80.83,81.24,80.29,80.24,79.64,81.31,77.58,74.67,72.14,71.24,70.75,70.65,69.88,68.06
10,87.31,85.32,83.95,82.73,81.58,80.09,79.42,77.01,75.31,82.68,80.91,79.38,78.49,77.55,75.52,74.56,72.67,71.50
11,85.64,83.11,80.65,78.78,78.15,77.93,75.10,73.92,70.94,82.16,79.93,78.61,77.39,76.54,75.70,72.58,70.82,69.73
12,85.61,82.31,80.19,77.86,76.70,75.17,72.13,73.08,69.58,81.22,78.69,77.19,75.34,74.66,72.80,70.23,70.03,67.38

最近一年實測高低溫與一日前預測相差三度或以上的日子列表

總日數：20日

日期	實測最高氣溫 (四捨五入後)	一日前預測最高氣溫	誤差	實測最低氣溫 (四捨五入後)	一日前預測最低氣溫	誤差
2024-04-18	29.5 (30)	32	低 2 度	24.1 (24)	27	低 3 度
2024-04-20	29.5 (30)	30	0 度	23.3 (23)	26	低 3 度
2024-04-21	27.2 (27)	29	低 2 度	21.5 (22)	25	低 3 度
2024-04-23	27.2 (27)	26	高 1 度	24.6 (25)	22	高 3 度
2024-04-27	30.2 (30)	29	高 1 度	27.7 (28)	24	高 4 度
2024-04-28	28.3 (28)	30	低 2 度	23.4 (23)	26	低 3 度
2024-05-04	25.4 (25)	28	低 3 度	22.4 (22)	24	低 2 度
2024-05-09	28.5 (29)	26	高 3 度	25.0 (25)	23	高 2 度
2024-05-28	32.0 (32)	29	高 3 度	26.0 (26)	25	高 1 度
2024-09-17	35.7 (36)	33	高 3 度	26.3 (26)	27	低 1 度
2024-10-04	30.9 (31)	29	高 2 度	24.6 (25)	22	高 3 度
2024-10-09	27.4 (27)	30	低 3 度	25.2 (25)	26	低 1 度
2024-10-11	27.5 (28)	30	低 2 度	23.2 (23)	26	低 3 度
2024-11-20	18.6 (19)	22	低 3 度	17.5 (18)	18	0 度
2025-02-26	20.7 (21)	18	高 3 度	16.1 (16)	15	高 1 度
2025-03-04	27.0 (27)	23	高 4 度	22.4 (22)	18	高 4 度
2025-03-05	23.9 (24)	21	高 3 度	17.4 (17)	18	低 1 度
2025-03-08	20.9 (21)	18	高 3 度	13.9 (14)	13	高 1 度
2025-03-10	25.6 (26)	23	高 3 度	18.0 (18)	18	0 度
2025-03-13	28.5 (29)	26	高 3 度	21.9 (22)	21	高 1 度

月份,日數
1999/05/01,45
1999/06/01,45
1999/07/01,46
1999/08/01,47
1999/09/01,48
1999/10/01,48
1999/11/01,48
1999/12/01,46
2000/01/01,45
2000/02/01,44
2000/03/01,41
2000/04/01,37
2000/05/01,34
2000/06/01,34
2000/07/01,32
2000/08/01,31
2000/09/01,27
2000/10/01,27
2000/11/01,27
2000/12/01,29
2001/01/01,30
2001/02/01,32
2001/03/01,31
2001/04/01,33
2001/05/01,36
2001/06/01,32
2001/07/01,35
2001/08/01,35
2001/09/01,35
2001/10/01,36
2001/11/01,35
2001/12/01,33
2002/01/01,37
2002/02/01,36
2002/03/01,37
2002/04/01,34
2002/05/01,30
2002/06/01,31
2002/07/01,32
2002/08/01,29
2002/09/01,32
2002/10/01,30
2002/11/01,29
2002/12/01,30
2003/01/01,24
2003/02/01,23
2003/03/01,25
2003/04/01,25
2003/05/01,29
2003/06/01,29
2003/07/01,24
2003/08/01,24
2003/09/01,24
2003/10/01,24
2003/11/01,25
2003/12/01,23
2004/01/01,23
2004/02/01,24
2004/03/01,24
2004/04/01,32
2004/05/01,28
2004/06/01,27
2004/07/01,29
2004/08/01,33
2004/09/01,31
2004/10/01,32
2004/11/01,32
2004/12/01,32
2005/01/01,33
2005/02/01,34
2005/03/01,34
2005/04/01,32
2005/05/01,35
2005/06/01,35
2005/07/01,37
2005/08/01,32
2005/09/01,33
2005/10/01,34
2005/11/01,33
2005/12/01,37
2006/01/01,41
2006/02/01,41
2006/03/01,40
2006/04/01,35
2006/05/01,37
2006/06/01,37
2006/07/01,36
2006/08/01,38
2006/09/01,39
2006/10/01,37
2006/11/01,37
2006/12/01,32
2007/01/01,31
2007/02/01,35
2007/03/01,36
2007/04/01,38
2007/05/01,40
2007/06/01,42
2007/07/01,39
2007/08/01,39
2007/09/01,38
2007/10/01,38
2007/11/01,44
2007/12/01,46
2008/01/01,45
2008/02/01,42
2008/03/01,47
2008/04/01,52
2008/05/01,47
2008/06/01,44
2008/07/01,46
2008/08/01,46
2008/09/01,46
2008/10/01,48
2008/11/01,44
2008/12/01,46
2009/01/01,45
2009/02/01,43
2009/03/01,40
2009/04/01,32
2009/05/01,32
2009/06/01,35
2009/07/01,35
2009/08/01,35
2009/09/01,34
2009/10/01,33
2009/11/01,35
2009/12/01,31
2010/01/01,31
2010/02/01,31
2010/03/01,30
2010/04/01,33
2010/05/01,35
2010/06/01,35
2010/07/01,36
2010/08/01,36
2010/09/01,36
2010/10/01,39
2010/11/01,37
2010/12/01,40
2011/01/01,39
2011/02/01,40
2011/03/01,41
2011/04/01,40
2011/05/01,43
2011/06/01,42
2011/07/01,39
2011/08/01,38
2011/09/01,42
2011/10/01,40
2011/11/01,39
2011/12/01,38
2012/01/01,39
2012/02/01,38
2012/03/01,39
2012/04/01,43
2012/05/01,37
2012/06/01,37
2012/07/01,39
2012/08/01,40
2012/09/01,36
2012/10/01,34
2012/11/01,37
2012/12/01,36
2013/01/01,38
2013/02/01,38
2013/03/01,32
2013/04/01,28
2013/05/01,28
2013/06/01,28
2013/07/01,30
2013/08/01,30
2013/09/01,34
2013/10/01,34
2013/11/01,31
2013/12/01,30
2014/01/01,29
2014/02/01,30
2014/03/01,33
2014/04/01,33
2014/05/01,37
2014/06/01,35
2014/07/01,33
2014/08/01,32
2014/09/01,27
2014/10/01,27
2014/11/01,28
2014/12/01,31
2015/01/01,29
2015/02/01,26
2015/03/01,25
2015/04/01,27
2015/05/01,23
2015/06/01,23
2015/07/01,24
2015/08/01,24
2015/09/01,24
2015/10/01,26
2015/11/01,25
2015/12/01,22
2016/01/01,24
2016/02/01,32
2016/03/01,32
2016/04/01,30
2016/05/01,31
2016/06/01,34
2016/07/01,33
2016/08/01,36
2016/09/01,38
2016/10/01,36
2016/11/01,38
2016/12/01,38
2017/01/01,36
2017/02/01,29
2017/03/01,32
2017/04/01,31
2017/05/01,29
2017/06/01,30
2017/07/01,31
2017/08/01,30
2017/09/01,28
2017/10/01,32
2017/11/01,31
2017/12/01,31
2018/01/01,34
2018/02/01,39
2018/03/01,34
2018/04/01,32
2018/05/01,33
2018/06/01,32
2018/07/01,30
2018/08/01,29
2018/09/01,31
2018/10/01,28
2018/11/01,29
2018/12/01,31
2019/01/01,28
2019/02/01,21
2019/03/01,25
2019/04/01,26
2019/05/01,29
2019/06/01,27
2019/07/01,26
2019/08/01,27
2019/09/01,26
2019/10/01,26
2019/11/01,23
2019/12/01,21
2020/01/01,21
2020/02/01,27
2020/03/01,28
2020/04/01,29
2020/05/01,28
2020/06/01,28
2020/07/01,29
2020/08/01,29
2020/09/01,30
2020/10/01,31
2020/11/01,32
2020/12/01,34
2021/01/01,35
2021/02/01,30
2021/03/01,30
2021/04/01,30
2021/05/01,27
2021/06/01,32
2021/07/01,33
2021/08/01,31
2021/09/01,29
2021/10/01,27
2021/11/01,26
2021/12/01,27
2022/01/01,26
2022/02/01,28
2022/03/01,26
2022/04/01,27
2022/05/01,31
2022/06/01,25
2022/07/01,24
2022/08/01,25
2022/09/01,26
2022/10/01,28
2022/11/01,29
2022/12/01,26
2023/01/01,26
2023/02/01,29
2023/03/01,24
2023/04/01,21
2023/05/01,17
2023/06/01,18
2023/07/01,18
2023/08/01,16
2023/09/01,18
2023/10/01,18
2023/11/01,17
2023/12/01,18
2024/01/01,17
2024/02/01,13
2024/03/01,20
2024/04/01,24
2024/05/01,24
2024/06/01,25
2024/07/01,24
2024/08/01,24
2024/09/01,22
2024/10/01,23
2024/11/01,24
2024/12/01,23
2025/01/01,23
2025/02/01,22
2025/03/01,20

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